what was i saying about regrouping ..............

that was the idea rather than doing my bollocks as was the case today............ Blogs are brilliant when everything is going swimmingly but with me losing nearly £1200 in the last 10 days, and me taking the honest route they can prove to be a pain in the arse !!! Not easy telling the world what a prat you have been and showing the signs of indiscipline that i try so hard to tell people to avoid, making mistakes are bad enough but then having to put them in print for all to see is hard to swallow. Part of the reason to start blogging was to give me an extra reason to remain disciplined, but looking back at today it was more of a case of being on the wrong horse and barking up the wrong tree.
Early afternoon all was rosey just the one bet £50 @ 3/1 on Bubses Boy 5.35 Folkestone, 5/2 was the best price and the bet was on the back of sustained support from respected faces in Newmarket and i was happy, then i got a call screaming the house down over The Hague in the 3.50 Southwell and i was told to expect support, i started to build a position in anticipation of support ................. how wrong can you be, the sp of 4/6 only tells one story as the exchange price was 11/8 i had well n truly caught a cold !!!! i was screwed and not a lot i could do, my source had recently given me Servoca on Friday 5/4 backed into 4/7 but this one was a right lemon. My exchange position is a tad embarrassing to air .............. but i have come this far, basically i had £325 @ 2/9 !!! Well i knew my goose was cooked pretty early on and i went for a stroll to try and clear my head, the gory detailsare shown below .............


Horse Racing > Sthl 31st Mar : 1m Mdn Stks
Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections
Selection
Odds
Stake(£)
Bid type
Placed
Profit/loss(£)
The Hague
*
1.86
900.00
Back

-900.00
The Hague
*
2.22
575.00
Lay

575.00
*Average odds: On Off
Back subtotal:
-900.00
Lay subtotal:
575.00
Market subtotal:
-325.00
Commission :
0.00
Net Market Total:
-325.00

I tried to salwage a little back on the day by having a further £50 @ 11/4 on Bubses Boy and although running much better than The Hague never threatened, to seal a £425 loss on the day.
I cant afford to lose these sort of sums thesedays and some serious thinking and work needs to be done over the next few days, my trip to Cheltenham looks as likely as Spurs winning the league unless fortunes quickly turnaround.


TUESDAY

PERSONAL TRADING

3.50 Southwell THE HAGUE £325 @ 1.22307 lost -£325

5.35 Folkestone BUBSES BOY £50 @ 3/1 & 11/4 3rd -£100

Time to regroup ..............

over Saturday & Sunday, with a lack of business welcome to me as the last 5 days have been a struggle to say the least, rather than puff my chest out and get brave i have always preferred the cautious approach of stabilising the ship and then rejoin the battle, feeling refreshed and with a clear head.
Only a couple of bets courtesy of VSR, Youzmain did not enjoy the clearest of runs, being stopped in his tracks at least twice and that scuppered any chance of a return, and with the Sunday bet Sea Stormn was only ever looking likely to collect the place money, it was a small deficit on the weekend.

The Bet Plan over the last week has been in good form with a return to decent form, my initial £500 bank now stands at £765.44, it did peak at £820.45 before sliding down a snake to £583 but we found a ladder and we now stand at a most respectable £765 !!

SATURDAY

4.40 Nad Al Sheba YOUZMAIN £25 ew @ 4/1 unpld -£50

SUNDAY

2.10 Kelso SEA STORM £25 ew @ 8/1 2nd +£15

a slip of the finger, or a taste of things to come .......

in respect of William Hills Each Way terms for the 5.05 Fontwell today, bookmakers oncourse often offer derogatory each way 1/6 odds 1-2-3 or 1/5 odds 1-2-3-4 each way terms and a recent racing/bookmaking commission led by Lord Donoghue i believe looked into each way terms offered by bookmakers off course, the news was slightly worrying although not unsuspected that 16 runner handicaps at 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4 offer the punter a bit of value........ So the punter has a mathematical edge in one type of bet, funnily enough the commission did not look into the book percentage offered by bookies on BAGS racing, numbers betting, virtual racing etc etc !!! funny that ........ Bookmakers are doing ok at present trading wise, yes there is a recession in the UK but from what im seeing the FOBT machines are holding up well as is more conventional betting, the majority of punters today mirror the "i want it now" culture, the kids of today love their KFC, Macdonalds, Kebabs and the rest and many punters in bookmakers love their Millersfield, Brushwood, Steepledowns they can get an instant betting fix evering couple of minutes or so, i regularly see bets of £200 or more on virtual racing it really defies belief.
Where some of the UK Bookmakers are struggling are the levels of debt that they have to service and cost cutting is prevalent throughout the industry as every penny has to be accounted for and savings are crucial, Sundays are the latest cut back with double time or even time and a half going the same way of the much missed Dodo !!

So a slight tweak of the Each Way terms may be next issue on their agenda, today William Hill offered Each Way terms of 1/5 odds 1-2-3-4 on the 5.05 Fontwell, these went unchanged until approximately 3.30pm, they may claim it was an innocent typo, but my suspicious cynical mind think they would just test the water to see the reaction, well thankfully the Betfair forum was full of it, a lot of bollocks is spouted on their and im a very occassional participent on the forum but today it proved its worth.

Im having a shocker of a week, and i cocked everything up but it was not as simple as that, but i do only have myself to blame, at times work has to take precedent over my personal punting !!! and today i paid the price of trying to combine the two. The first incident was just an example of opportunity cost we took a lump on Sevoca 7.20 Wolves @ 11/10 , 5/4 was available with corals but i could not access the site, the next price i could get was 10/11 but no way was i going to take that 2.02/2.04 on betfair for peanuts, i joined the offer at 2.04 after half an hour of sorting out spreadsheets and general crap i had a look at betfair and i was unmatched and 1.86/88 was the price. I just watched the price contract all day and the 7l victory did not go down well from a company or personal point of view ...............

Optimum played in the 4.05 Ascot with a decent bet on Mizen Raven and i broke one of my personal betting rules of backing and laying in the same race, some may feel if you have a strong view then its a reasonable stance to take but over the years i dont think it has worked for me, or is that i just remember the bad days more ? Well the lay Fire and Rain was struggling and had just traded at 30 and the well travelling Mizen Raven was 2.32/2.40 on the exchanges, i wanted to cover myself.............but my pod partner at work had taken a fag break and i got a shop enquiry and all i could do was watch with horror as Fire and Rain rallied, i could see the inevitable happening some way out but there was nothing i could do as work took over. I was fuming but my annoyance and anger subsided some what after the equivalent of the weight of a bag of sweets caused carnage on the exchanges after Radar Love was disqualified following an objection from the clerk of the scales, again proving there is no such thing as FREE MONEY ............

FRIDAY



OPTIMUM RACING



4.05 Ascot MIZEN RAVEN £125 @ 10/3 2nd -£125

VSR

2.20 Ascot DOVERS HILL £25 ew @ 7/1 2nd +£18.75



PERSONAL TRADING



4.05 Ascot FIRE and RUN Lay £80 @ 3.50 WON -£200

Wish the quiet spell continued !!!

but i will take todays loss on the chin and move onwards n upwards. No complaints from me although i compounded the loss on No Supper by having an extra £100 ew @ 3/1 BOG (11/2), the horse travels so well (usually) in his races i was happy with the trade and drift, but he was never travelling and at no stage did my lay trades look like getting filled.

So a deficit of £350 on the day and week, and i will be beavering away trying to get my head in front of the week, have promised the Mrs a weekend away.............. to Cheltenham of course in the middle of April and i need my punting to pay for it, so not a good start !!



I enjoy reading the betting window page in the RP (today p19) especially the job in focus article but the odds compilers/traders views on arbers although understandable to an extent does wind me up a tad............... they are happy using the exchanges to price up their markets and use it as an early warning system and personally i feel they they must expect business when trading/arbing opportunities arise, so they think that "arbing is a tedious way to make money and takes the fun out of gambling"........... so if they walked down the street and noticed a score on the floor they would walk straight past it ???? I DONT THINK SO !! Gambling to me is about making money, today that means supplementing my income and trading/arbing is all part of the game. Take exchanges out of the game (not going to happen) and overnight arbing will be history..................










TUESDAY



OPTIMUM RACING



5.10 Southwell NO SUPPER £75 ew @ 11/2 LOST -£150



PERSONAL TRADING



5.10 Southwell NO SUPPER £100 ew @ 11/2 LOST -£200

Quiet couple of days ...............

on both Sunday & Monday, actually on the Sunday i missed a losing EW double from VSR which saved me a bullseye, i was pottering about in the garden and missed the text message. My only punting was done courtesy of The Bet Plan that put up 3 shorties that all comfortably collected, which got them back on the winning trail.

Monday was a non event for me, betting wise, so i wont waste your or my time with any baloney !!

Nearly a perfect day............

although Arsenal won, at least i profited from it, although it was a close run thing in the Rugby, what a brilliant occasion in Cardiff, and as i get older i could see Rugby challenging Football as my second favourite sport, there is no trouble on the terraces, both sets of fans enjoy a pint together before the match and there is little cynical play, spitting and diving !!
On a punting front i was a little frustrated in the morning, it was relatively quiet but the sharks were out in force for two horses Be Brief 3.45 Haydock 11/2 - 5/1 but a NR and Ratchcor 4.30 Bangor @ 14/1 but i could not avail myself of anything better than 10/1, next time i looked it was a under pressure 8/1 shot !! Even this would have been value as Rathcor who finished 3rd returned a 4/1 fav.
Another horse we were fending off was Legislate in the last at Lingfield, a dodgy ew race with a odds on fav in the form of Jesse James, Legislate was the subject of decent EW interest and i took the decision to offer minimal EW support for Legislate, instead offering full win and half a place................talk about poacher turned gamekeeper !!! A well connected customer made me fully aware that this was a decent EW bet and as he drifted on the shows i managed to get £186 ew on £100 ew @ 7/2 and £86 ew @ 4/1. I was happy with this bet especially as late support came in, but i placed a hopeful trade to lay £200 @ 2.20 in running, this was matched as Legislate battled on gamely inside the last to fend off Jesse James and give me a most welcome little touch.


SATURDAY

PERSONAL TRADING

5.25 Lingfield LEGISLATE £100 ew @ 7/2 £86 ew @ 4/1 WON +£832.80
LAY £200 @ 2.20 I/R - £240 (overall profit +£592.80)


SPORTS BETTING

Arsenal to bt Newcastle 8/11 Ireland to bt Wales 11/8 £75 double WON +£232.67

Got out of jail, with the last throw of the dice today.....

thanks to the well primed and supported Mujma in the last at Lingfield, backed from an early price of 16/1 to an sp of 11/2. Shrewdies came on early doors and all the right faces in Newmarket were getting on, so i followed them in with a score ew @ 12/1. This win made up for some earlier reverses, the first of which was backing the weak in the market Fiftyonefiftyone in a match bet with Fistral beach and then the OPTIMUM advised Oh Braga in the 3.50 Newbury, again the market did not inspire confidence as the selection drifted from 6/4 to 5/2, before a sp of 9/4 was returned. Well after the first couple of fences i would not have taken 33/1 as he made early blunders and ballooned the 3rd as if he was at Olympia jumping the puissance !! But then his jumping improved and got into a nice rhythem and in my book was travelling just as well as the eventual winner ............... when he knuckled on landing and fell, although he jumped the fence well, so i needed a fightback and thankfully Mujma provided it.




FRIDAY

OPTIMUM RACING

3.15 Newbury OH BRAGA £150 @ 2/1 unpld -£150

PERSONAL TRADING

2.40 Newbury Back 5151 v FISTRAL BEACH £100 match bet @ 2.18 lost -£100

5.50 Lingfield MUJMA £20 ew @ 12/1 WON +£288